Edinburgh Integration
Joint Board

Dementia

Dementia is an umbrella term for a range of conditions which affect the brain causing a deterioration in memory, thinking, behaviour and the ability to perform everyday activities. Dementia is a long-term, progressive and complex condition. Although dementia mainly affects older people and the risk of developing it increases with age, it is not a normal part of ageing. The most common types of dementia are Alzheimer’s disease, vascular dementia and dementia with Lewy bodies.

Using estimates of the prevalence of dementia in studies published by Alzheimer’s Scotland and the Alzheimer’s Society, along with mid-year population estimates and population projections published by National Records of Scotland (NRS), it is possible to produce estimates for Edinburgh for the number of people who are expected to have dementia.

This topic paper sets out how different data sources have been used to calculate the overall prevalence, how the population data have been used to calculate the estimates and projections of the number of people with dementia, the policy landscape around dementia concluding with a note of the derived prevalence and an analysis of the estimates and projections of the number of people with dementia.

Key points

A number of key points to note are:

  • A number of key points to note are:
  • In 2019 there were 7,784 people aged 65+ estimated to have dementia; 9.8% of the population.
  • For the 85+ population there were estimated to be 3,862 people with dementia; 33.8% of the population.
  • 60.4% of older people 65+ living in care homes in Edinburgh are estimated to have dementia.
  • Between 2018 and 2030, the number of people estimated to have dementia in Edinburgh is expected to increase by 26.5% from 7,921 to 10,019.
Data sources

Two sets of prevalence rates have been used in the calculation of estimates for Edinburgh. In line with the prevalence rates adopted by Alzheimer’s Scotland, the EuroCoDe rates are used for people aged 60+[1]. The rates for 90+ have been derived using the NRS Centenarians in Scotland 2009 – 2019 publication[2] as the EuroCoDe prevalence rates have separate rates for 90-94 and 95+ compared with the usual breakdown for population statistics at local authority level where 90+ is the largest category. The rates used for people aged under 60 are those published in the Dementia UK Update from the Alzheimer’s Society[3].

The 2019 estimate of people with dementia in Edinburgh is based on the 2019 mid-year small area population estimates[4]. The datazones have been matched to locality to allow locality estimates to be produced. The 2018-2030 projections of people with dementia in Edinburgh are based on the 2018 based population projections[5]. These are the latest data currently available from NRS.

It is important to note the difference between estimates and projections. The estimate of the number of people with dementia in Edinburgh is based on the latest mid-year population estimate produced by NRS (currently 2019). Applying this population estimate to the prevalence will give the most accurate figure for the estimated number of people with dementia. The projection, which will also give a number for the current year, is based on the latest population projections (currently from 2018). These forward looking projections give the expected number of people with dementia in Edinburgh each year until 2030.

No consideration has been made for the effect of COVID-19 on these estimates and projections, however, this will become apparent in future updates to NRS estimates and projections.

Alzheimer Scotland

EuroCoDe: Report of WP 7 2006, Prevalence of Dementia in Europe (17 July 2009)

Centenarians in Scotland 2009 to 2019, National Records of Scotland (24 September 2020)

Dementia UK Update, Alzheimer’s Society (November 2014)

Mid-2019 Small Area Population Estimates for 2011 Data Zones, National Records of Scotland (27 August 2020)

Population projections for Scottish Areas (2018 based), National Records of Scotland (24 March 2020)

Policy background

Because of the impact of Covid, Scotland’s National Dementia Strategy 2017-2020[6] was extended until May 2023 when the fourth strategy was published. Dementia in Scotland: Everyone’s Story[7]was developed in association with the National Dementia Lived Experience panel. It outlines a number of areas which is hoped will improve the lives of people living with dementia, their families and carers, including pre- and post-dementia diagnosis and work to enable more people to live well at home. Tackling the stigma of dementia will be a priority of the plan and it aims to do this by ensuring that two-year delivery plans are agreed, with the first of these expected to be published at the end of 2023.

[6]  Scotland’s National Dementia Strategy 2017-2020 , Scottish Government https://www.gov.scot/publications/scotlands-national-dementia-strategy-2017-2020/ (28 June 2017)

[7] Dementia in Scotland: Everyone’s Story https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publications/strategy-plan/2023/05/new-dementia-strategy-scotland-everyones-story/documents/dementia-scotland-everyones-story/dementia-scotland-everyones-story/govscot%3Adocument/dementia-scotland-everyones-story.pdf (31 May 2023)

Prevalence

As detailed above, the prevalence rates are based on two different estimations for early onset dementia in under 60s, and for those with dementia aged 60+. The percentage of each age group, by sex, is estimated to be:

FemaleMale
30-340.0100.009
35-390.0090.006
40-440.0200.008
45-490.0270.032
50-540.0550.063
55-590.0970.180
60-640.9000.600
65-691.4001.600
70-743.8003.500
75-797.600 7.400
80-8416.40015.700
85-8928.50026.200
90+45.33041.861
Table 4.1: Prevalence of dementia by age and sex (percentage)
Estimated number of people with dementia

These rates can be applied to the relevant populations to allow for an estimation of the number of people expected to have dementia in that area.

The tables below give a breakdown of the number of people in 2019 estimated to have dementia split by both age group, gender and locality.

30-4445-6465-7475-8485+Total 30+
North East3592165637951,637
North West3863489631,2542,655
South East3622586489851,956
South West3612606668281,818
Total132681,0832,8393,8628,065
Table 4.2: Estimated number of people with dementia, 2019


Graph 4.1: Estimated number of people with dementia, 2019

30-4445-6465-7475-8485+Total 30+
North East2321143215381,008
North West2481895818401,660
South East2341373856801,238
South West2341373905671,130
Total8  149576  1,6782,626 5,036
Table 4.3: Estimated number of females with dementia, 2019
30-4445-6465-7475-8485+Total 30+
North East126102242257629
North West138160382414995
South East128 122262305717
South West127123 276261687
Total5 119 507 1,162 1,236 3,029

Table 4.4: Estimated number of males with dementia, 2019

In 2019 there were 7,784 people aged 65+ estimated to have dementia, this represents 9.8% of the population. As the prevalence rates above would suggest, as age increases, the percentage of the population with dementia increases steeply. For the 85+ population there were estimated to be 3,862 people with dementia, representing 33.8% of the population.

Location of people with dementia

Using information from the 2019 Care Home census[7] it is possible to identify that in the care home census week in 2019 there were 1,525 older people aged 65+ with dementia living in care homes in Edinburgh. This represents 60.4% of the 2,525 people in cares homes in Edinburgh. Of the 7,784 older people aged 65+ with dementia in Edinburgh 19.6% are living in a care home.

The Care Home census looks at the location of the care home and includes people living in care homes in Edinburgh funded by other Health and Social Care Partnerships.

Care Home Census for Adults in Scotland 2019, Public Health Scotland (27 October 2020)

Projected number of people with dementia

Between 2018 and 2030, the overall population is expected to increase by 7.7%. This increase is not evenly spread throughout the population, with large increases in the older population anticipated. As such, the number of people estimated to have dementia in Edinburgh over the same period is expected to increase by 26.5% from 7,921 in 2018 to 10,019 in 2030.

The graph below shows the expected increase in the number of people aged 65+ with dementia, by gender and total, indexed to 2018. Overall the expected increase is 27.1%, however, the increase in the number of males aged 65+ with dementia is expected to increase by 37.1%. The rate of increase is expected to accelerate from 2021.

Graph 4.2: Projected number of people with dementia, 2018-2030 by gender

2018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030
30-4412121313141414141414141415
45-64263268274280283287290293293295293292289
65-741,0531,0831,1101,1311,1131,1181,1281,1401,1651,1911,2231,2511,283
75-842,8192,8432,8552,8622,9773,0533,1433,2273,3213,4943,6043,7043,791
85+3,7753,8603,9324,0094,0774,1564,2154,2714,3044,3564,4404,5444,641
Total 30+7,9218,068 8,1848,2958,4648,6288,790 8,9459,0979,350 9,575 9,805 10,019
Table 4.5.1: Projected number of people with dementia, 2018-2030, by gender and age. Total, female and male
2018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030
30-447888889999999
45-64145149153156158160161162163163163162160
65-74562577592601590591596601612626643660677
75-841,6691,6801,6821,6861,7431,7741,8121,8551,9021,9882,0442,0952,144
85+2,6032,6432,6672,7032,7382,7892,8232,8502,8692,9012,9422,9903,038
Total 30+4,986        5,0575,1015,1535,2365,3225,401 5,4775,5545,6875,8015,9166,029
Table 4.5.2: Females
2018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030
30-445555555566666
45-64118119122124125128129130131131131131129
65-74491506517530523527532539553564579591606
75-841,1501,1641,1731,1771,2341,2791,3301,3721,4191,5061,5601,6091,647
85+1,1721,2171,2651,3061,3391,3661,3921,4211,4351,4551,4981,5541,602
Total 30+2,9353,011 30833,1423,22733053,388 3,4683,5433,6623,774 3,889 3,990
Tables 4.5.3 Males
2018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030
30-443344444444444
45-6457596163646566676869696969
65-74212218225232229234240248255263273283291
75-84575574577581607619637648665699724746768
85+774783782784783793794798802808820835848
Total 30+1,6211,6381,6481,6641,6871,7151,741 1,7651,7941,8431,8911,9371,980
Table 4.6.1: Projected number of people with dementia, 2018-2030 by age and locality – North East
2018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030
30-443444444444444
45-6485879092939596979797959593
65-74341349359366360362368373383393406416429
75-849679669599479789991,0211,0441,0731,1251,1571,1871,219
85+1,2391,2771,3031,3361,3591,3791,3961,4081,4101,4211,4421,4711,488
Total 30+2,6362,6832,714 2,7452,7942,8402,8862,9262,9673,041 3,1053,1723,234
Table 4.6.2: North West
2018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030
30-443333333333333
45-6462636464656566666666666665
65-74252264269276272275274273277283286290297
75-84645658670684714737765797825869896933950
85+9719891,0081,0191,0471,0701,0891,1101,1241,1461,1791,2041,245
Total 30+1,933 1,9772,0152,0472,1012,1502,1962,2492,2952,3672,4302,4962,560
Table 4.6.3: South East
2018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030
30-443333333333333
45-6458596061616162626263636261
65-74248252256257252247244246249251258263267
75-84632646649650678698720738758801827838854
85+7908118398698889149379559689801,0001,0351,060
Total 30+1,7311,7701,8061,8401,8821,9231,9662,0042,0412,0982,1492,2012,245
Table 4.6.4: South West