Population and demographics
This paper gives an overview of the population of Edinburgh, both current and projected. The data are taken from a number of sources, most of which were published during 2020; some high-level estimates were published in 2022. No consideration has been made for the effect of COVID-19 on the population, however, this will become apparent in future updates to NRS estimates and projections.
There are seven sections in this chapter considering:
- Population estimates for the City of Edinburgh and its localities
- Ethnicity
- Country of birth and nationality
- Population projections, to 2030, again for the City and its localities
- Migration trends
- An overview of deprivation data
- Household estimates and projections for the City.
Key points
Detailed key points are highlighted at the end of each section, however, as a summary, a number are noted here:
- The population of Edinburgh in the 2022 Census was estimated to be 512,700.
- In common with other Scottish cities, the Census 2022 data showed a slight drop for Edinburgh, from the mid-year population estimate for 2021, from 526,470 to 512,700.
- This drop was primarily in the working age group, with those ages 20-64 being 4.7% lower than estimated, while those aged 65+ were 1% higher than previously estimated.
- The most common moves within Scotland were from the largest cities, Edinburgh especially, to their neighbouring council areas
- For the first time, the NRS projects Scotland’s population to fall in the next decade, starting around 2029, and if past trends continue, by 2045 Scotland will have a smaller and older population.
- North West is the largest locality accounting for 28.5% of the population of Edinburgh
- The overall population of Edinburgh is expected to grow by 7.7% between 2018 and 2030
- Each of the older population age groups in Edinburgh and Scotland are expected to grow by at least a fifth
- The largest growth is expected in the North East locality
- Just over 2 in 5 people (43.5%) in Edinburgh live in the 20% least deprived areas of Scotland
- Over half of the population in both North West and South East live in the 20% least deprived datazones in Scotland
- North East has the highest proportion living in the most deprived datazones
- Two fifths of households in Edinburgh are single person households.
Comparisons against the national data are also included where appropriate.
Population estimate
Data in this section are drawn from the National Records of Scotland (NRS) Mid-2022 Population Estimates, the latest available data.
Table 1.1: Estimated population of Edinburgh, mid-2022
| Male | Female | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-17 | 43,201 | 40,883 | 84,084 |
| 18-44 | 109,169 | 118,256 | 227,425 |
| 45-64 | 59,775 | 61,231 | 121,006 |
| 65-74 | 20,925 | 22,985 | 43,910 |
| 75-84 | 11,715 | 15,273 | 26,988 |
| 85+ | 4,237 | 7,340 | 11,577 |
| Total | 249,022 | 265,968 | 514,990 |
Key points include:
- The population of Edinburgh in mid-2022 was estimated to be 514,990.
- 51.6% of the population are female.
- 16.3% of the population are under 18.
- 16% of the population are 65+.
- 2.2% of the population are 85+.
Population estimates for localities
As required in the Public Bodies (Joint Working) (Scotland) Act 2014, the legislation underpinning the integration of Health and Social Care, the Integration Joint Board is required to prepare a strategic plan that divides the area it covers into at least two localities.
The locality boundaries for the Edinburgh Health and Social Care Partnership can be found as a layer within the Health section of the City of Edinburgh Council’s Atlas. The boundaries for the Health and Social Care Partnership are coterminous with the City of Edinburgh Council locality boundaries.
For reference the boundaries are shown in the map below, however it recommended to view the boundaries on the atlas for greater detail and clarity.
Map 1.1: Locality boundaries for the Edinburgh Health and Social Care Partnership
The NRS Mid-2019 Small Area Population Estimates for 2011 Data Zones[2] allow the population in each locality to be estimated. The tables below show the population split by locality and age group; first the population and secondly the distribution of the age groups across the population in each locality.
Table 1.2: Estimated population of localities in Edinburgh, mid-2019
| North East | North West | South East | South West | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-17 | 18,017 | 29,759 | 18,817 | 20,888 | 87,481 |
| 18-44 | 57,211 | 54,927 | 71,127 | 53,764 | 237,029 |
| 45-64 | 27,553 | 38,737 | 27,389 | 27,386 | 121,065 |
| 65-74 | 8,621 | 13,807 | 10,300 | 10,154 | 42,882 |
| 75-84 | 5008 | 8,431 | 5,722 | 5,881 | 25,042 |
| 85+ | 2,350 | 3,756 | 2,845 | 2,480 | 11,431 |
| Total | 118,760 | 149,417 | 136,200 | 120,553 | 524,930 |
| Of Edinburgh population | 22.6% | 28.5% | 25.9% | 23.0% | 100.0% |
Table 1.3: Percentage of population by age group in localities, Edinburgh and Scotland, mid-2019
| North East | North West | South East | South West | Total | Scotland | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-17 | 15.2% | 19.9% | 13.8% | 17.3% | 16.7% | 18.8% |
| 18-44 | 48.2% | 36.8% | 52.2% | 44.6% | 45.2% | 34.6% |
| 45-64 | 23.2% | 25.9% | 20.1% | 22.7% | 23.1% | 27.5% |
| 65-74 | 7.3% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 10.6% |
| 75-84 | 4.2% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 6.2% |
| 85+ | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.3% |
| Total | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Key points include:
- North West is the largest locality accounting for 28.5% of the population of Edinburgh
- North East is the smallest locality accounting for 22.6% of the population of Edinburgh
- North East is the locality with the lowest number of older people, accounting for 20.1% of the 65+ population in Edinburgh
- North West has the highest proportions of population in every age group except the 18-44 age group
- South East has the highest proportion of people aged 18-44 at 52.2%.
Mid-2021 Population Estimates Scotland, National Records of Scotland (July 2022)
Mid-2019 Small Area Population Estimates for 2011 Data Zones, National Records of Scotland (27 August 2020)
Profile of Ethnicity in Edinburgh
There are little recent data on the ethnicity of people living in Edinburgh. The NRS 2011 Census results[3] remain the main source of data on ethnicity of the Scottish population. The next census in Scotland is due to take place in 2022, delayed for a year due to COVID-19.
Table 1.4: Ethnicity 2011, Edinburgh
| 0-17 | 18-44 | 45-64 | 65-74 | 75-84 | 85+ | All ages | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| White: Total | 71,898 | 188,925 | 108,925 | 33,439 | 24,169 | 9,811 | 437,167 |
| White: Scottish | 62,397 | 122,902 | 90,691 | 29,010 | 21,526 | 8,461 | 334,987 |
| White: Other British | 4,664 | 31,930 | 13,045 | 3,396 | 2,022 | 1,075 | 56,132 |
| White: Irish | 321 | 5,991 | 1,467 | 422 | 298 | 104 | 8,603 |
| White: Gypsy/Traveller | 77 | 239 | 52 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 388 |
| White: Polish | 2,344 | 9,480 | 858 | 39 | 45 | 54 | 12,820 |
| White: Other White | 2,095 | 18,383 | 2,812 | 559 | 272 | 116 | 24,237 |
| Mixed or multiple ethnic groups | 1,701 | 2,017 | 290 | 53 | 17 | 9 | 4,087 |
| Asian, Asian Scottish or Asian British | 5,374 | 17,032 | 3,032 | 489 | 291 | 46 | 26,264 |
| African | 1,137 | 2,797 | 482 | 38 | 18 | 2 | 4,474 |
| Caribbean or Black | 243 | 549 | 209 | 16 | 10 | 4 | 1,031 |
| Other ethnic groups | 983 | 2,147 | 398 | 46 | 23 | 6 | 3,603 |
| All people | 81,336 | 213,467 | 113,336 | 34,081 | 24,528 | 9,878 | 476,626 |
Table 1.5: Ethnicity 2011, Edinburgh
| 0-17 | 18-44 | 45-64 | 65-74 | 75-84 | 85+ | All ages | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| White: Total | 88.4% | 88.5% | 96.1% | 98.1% | 98.5% | 99.3% | 91.7% |
| White: Scottish | 76.7% | 57.6% | 80.0% | 85.1% | 87.8% | 85.7% | 70.3% |
| White: Other British | 5.7% | 15.0% | 11.5% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 10.9% | 11.8% |
| White: Irish | 0.4% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.8% |
| White: Gypsy/Traveller | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| White: Polish | 2.9% | 4.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 2.7% |
| White: Other White | 2.6% | 8.6% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 5.1% |
| Mixed or multiple ethnic groups | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.9% |
| Asian, Asian Scottish or Asian British | 6.6% | 8.0% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 5.5% |
| African | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.9% |
| Caribbean or Black | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| Other ethnic groups | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.8% |
| All people | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Table 1.6: Ethnicity 2011, Scotland
| 0-17 | 18-44 | 45-64 | 65-74 | 75-84 | 85+ | All ages | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| White: Total | 94.4% | 93.9% | 98.1% | 99.0% | 99.2% | 99.5% | 96.0% |
| White: Scottish | 86.9% | 78.6% | 86.0% | 88.2% | 89.9% | 87.7% | 84.0% |
| White: Other British | 4.4% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 7.9% |
| White: Irish | 0.4% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.0% |
| White: Gypsy/Traveller | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| White: Polish | 1.3% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 1.2% |
| White: Other White | 1.3% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.9% |
| Mixed or multiple ethnic groups | 0.9% |
0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| Asian, Asian Scottish or Asian British | 3.3% | 4.2% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 2.7% |
| African | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.6% |
| Caribbean or Black | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Other ethnic groups | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% |
| All people | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Key points from the 2011 census include:
- 91.7% of the population of Edinburgh (437,167 out of 476,626 people) were white
- The percentage of the population that is white in Edinburgh increases by age group from 88.4% for under 18 to 99.3% for 85 and over; 91.7% overall. In Scotland it increases from the 18-44 age group from 93.9% to 99.5%; 96.0% overall, however the proportion that were white aged under 18 was 94.4%, slightly more than the 18-44 age group
- In both Edinburgh and Scotland there were very small numbers of people aged 65 and over who are Asian, African, Caribbean or Black. Each group not exceeding 0.1% of the respective age group
- Edinburgh has twice the national proportion of people who are Asian.
A paper prepared for the previous iteration of the JSNA on the Health and Care Needs of People from Minority Ethnic Communities was published in April 2018[4] and remains the most up to date analysis on the topic.
[3] Scotland’s Census, 2011 Census results, National Records of Scotland https://www.scotlandscensus.gov.uk/ (26 September 2013)
[4] Health and Care Needs of People from Minority Ethnic Communities, Edinburgh Health and Social Care Partnership (April 2018)
The Annual Population Survey provides estimate of the Scottish population by both nationality and country of birth. The results are published in the NRS Population by Country of Birth and Nationality, Scotland, July 2020 to June 2021 [5] publication. Information is provided on the number of non-British nationals and non-UK born living in each local authority area in Scotland.
The table below shows the percentage of the population of the country of birth and nationality of people living in Edinburgh and Scotland.
Table 1.7: Country of birth and nationality, 2020-21
| Birth | Nationality | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edinburgh | Scotland | Edinburgh | Scotland | |
| UK | 75.3% | 90.3% | 80.4% | 92.6% |
| EU (Total) | 12.8% | 4.8% | 11.8% | 4.3% |
| EU 14 | 7.8% | 2.5% | 6.8% | 2.1% |
| EU 8 | 3.5% | 1.9% | 3.7% | 1.9% |
| EU 2 | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| EU other | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Other Europe | 0.2% | 0.1% | ||
| Asia | 5.4% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 1.4% |
| Rest of World | 6.2% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 1.6% |
Due to low numbers, not all figures were published to protect personal information.
Key points include:
- The proportion of people living in Edinburgh who are not born in UK or British nationals is at least twice the Scottish proportion in all categories bar EU8 (where data are published).
- More than one in five people living in Edinburgh were not born in the UK and just under one in five are not British nationals.
- Nationally around one in ten were not born in the UK and are not British nationals.
[5] Population by Country of Birth and Nationality, Scotland, July 2020 to June 2021, National Records of Scotland (25 November 2021)
The latest population projections are based on the NRS Population Projections for Scottish Areas (2018-based)[6] publication. Projections are based on what has happened in the past rather than predicting the impact of events. As such the projections do not take account of COVID-19 or the impact of leaving the EU. The analysis in this chapter is based on the principal projection by NRS, however, other projections based on different assumptions for migration and fertility are also produced. It should be noted that the mid-2018 projection gives a lower overall citywide population for 2019 than the mid-2019 estimate; population projections are not revised every year.
The graph below shows that the age groups with the greatest population growth until 2030 are for those aged 65 and over. The age group showing the largest increase is 75-84. The under 18 age group, although showing an increase for a number of years, by 2030 is projected to be smaller than in 2018.
The increasing population in the older people age groups are driving the overall percentage increase in population. The older age groups have increases above the overall increase and the age groups under 65 all have increases below the overall increase.
Chart 1.1: Projected population Edinburgh 2018-2030
The table below shows the projection populations by age group and gender from the 2018 base year to 2030.
Table 1.8: Projected population by age and gender 2018-2030
Males
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-17 | 44,566 | 44,953 | 45,245 | 45,567 | 45,789 | 45,893 | 45,981 | 45,936 | 45,704 | 45,446 | 45,296 | 44,873 | 44,586 |
| 18-44 | 114,371 | 115,115 | 115,971 | 116,679 | 117,259 | 117,960 | 118,263 | 118,698 | 119,316 | 119,833 | 120,071 | 120,693 | 120,954 |
| 45-64 | 59,926 | 60,351 | 60,777 | 60,987 | 61,209 | 61,354 | 61,845 | 62,281 | 62,533 | 62,897 | 63,282 | 63,646 | 64,096 |
| 65-74 | 19,925 | 20,351 | 20,720 | 21,231 | 21,145 | 21,395 | 21,644 | 22,037 | 22,582 | 23,054 | 23,696 | 24,146 | 24,749 |
| 75-84 | 10,445 | 10,633 | 10,783 | 10,935 | 11,732 | 12,242 | 12,752 | 13,147 | 13,560 | 14,003 | 14,346 | 14,681 | 14,970 |
| 85+ | 3,756 | 3,889 | 4,049 | 4,158 | 4,247 | 4,314 | 4,379 | 4,450 | 4,467 | 4,514 | 4,643 | 4,824 | 4,981 |
| Total | 252,989 | 255,292 | 257,545 | 259,557 | 261,381 | 263,158 | 264,864 | 266,549 | 268,162 | 269,747 | 271,334 | 272,863 | 274,336 |
Females
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-17 | 42,300 | 42,560 | 42,822 | 43,159 | 43,416 | 43,641 | 43,650 | 43,586 | 43,338 | 42,996 | 42,737 | 42,226 | 41,919 |
| 18-44 | 118,933 | 119,755 | 120,423 | 120,921 | 121,337 | 121,731 | 122,154 | 122,468 | 122,978 | 123,263 | 123,586 | 124,034 | 124,162 |
| 45-64 | 60,344 | 60,696 | 61,043 | 61,267 | 61,348 | 61,402 | 61,589 | 61,906 | 62,218 | 62,836 | 63,193 | 63,634 | 64,229 |
| 65-74 | 22,144 | 22,556 | 22,921 | 23,228 | 23,151 | 23,409 | 23,778 | 24,186 | 24,689 | 25,183 | 25,793 | 26,376 | 26,895 |
| 75-84 | 14,355 | 14,460 | 14,526 | 14,686 | 15,466 | 15,887 | 16,318 | 16,773 | 17,140 | 17,482 | 17,781 | 18,098 | 18,395 |
| 85+ | 7,435 | 7,523 | 7,555 | 7,625 | 7,697 | 7,845 | 7,928 | 7,979 | 7,999 | 8,065 | 8,161 | 8,289 | 8,424 |
| Total | 265,511 | 267,550 | 269,290 | 270,886 | 272,415 | 273,915 | 275,417 | 276,898 | 278,362 | 279,825 | 281,251 | 282,657 | 284,024 |
All people
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-17 | 86,866 | 87,513 | 88,067 | 88,726 | 89,205 | 89,534 | 89,631 | 89,522 | 89,042 | 88,442 | 88,033 | 87,099 | 86,505 |
| 18-44 | 233,304 | 234,870 | 236,394 | 237,600 | 238,596 | 239,691 | 240,417 | 241,166 | 242,294 | 243,096 | 243,657 | 244,727 | 245,116 |
| 45-64 | 120,270 | 121,047 | 121,820 | 122,254 | 122,557 | 122,756 | 123,434 | 124,187 | 124,751 | 125,733 | 126,475 | 127,280 | 128,325 |
| 65-74 | 42,069 | 42,907 | 43,641 | 44,459 | 44,296 | 44,804 | 45,422 | 46,223 | 47,271 | 48,237 | 49,489 | 50,522 | 51,644 |
| 75-84 | 24,800 | 25,093 | 25,309 | 25,621 | 27,198 | 28,129 | 29,070 | 29,920 | 30,700 | 31,485 | 32,127 | 32,779 | 33,365 |
| 85+ | 11,191 | 11,412 | 11,604 | 11,783 | 11,944 | 12,159 | 12,307 | 12,429 | 12,466 | 12,579 | 12,804 | 13,113 | 13,405 |
| Total | 518,500 | 522,842 | 526,835 | 530,443 | 533,796 | 537,073 | 540,281 | 543,447 | 546,524 | 549,572 | 552,585 | 555,520 | 558,360 |
Overall the population of Edinburgh is expected to grow by 7.7% over the period from 2018 to 2030, however, this masks the expected change in population for certain age groups.
The overall growth in population is larger in Edinburgh than nationally, however, the distribution of that growth varies substantially when compared against specific age groups.
Table 1.9: Percentage change in population 2018-2030
| Edinburgh | Scotland | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Males | Females | Total | Males | Females | Total | |
| 0-17 | 0.0% | -0.9% | -0.4% | -5.5% | -5.9% | -5.7% |
| 18-44 | 5.8% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 0.2% | 1.5% |
| 45-64 | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.7% | -7.3% | -6.6% | -6.9% |
| 65-74 | 24.2% | 21.5% | 22.8% | 18.4% | 20.3% | 19.4% |
| 75-84 | 43.3% | 28.1% | 34.5% | 37.5% | 25.8% | 30.9% |
| 85+ | 32.6% | 13.3% | 19.8% | 42.4% | 18.0% | 26.5% |
| Total | 8.4% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 2.0% |
Table 1.10: Absolute change in population, Edinburgh 2018-2030
| Edinburgh | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Males | Females | Total | |
| 0-17 | 20 | -381 | -361 |
| 18-44 | 6,583 | 5,229 | 11,812 |
| 45-64 | 4,170 | 3,885 | 8,055 |
| 65-74 | 4,824 | 4,751 | 9,575 |
| 75-84 | 4,525 | 4,040 | 8,565 |
| 85+ | 1,225 | 989 | 2,214 |
| Total | 21,347 | 18,513 | 39,860 |
Key points include:
- The under 18 population in Edinburgh is expected to fall slightly, but much less than nationally.
- The adult 18-64 population in Edinburgh is expected to grow by just under the overall population increase of 7.7% (39,860 people), whereas it will fall nationally.
- Each of the older population age groups in Edinburgh and Scotland are expected to grow by at least a fifth.
- The 85+ age group is expected to grow more nationally than in Edinburgh.
- The percentage increases in the male population are larger for each age group than the expected increases in the female population in Edinburgh.
Looking specifically in greater detail at the expected population increases of the older population by gender the figures are particularly striking. In Edinburgh, the number of men aged 90+ is projected to rise from 1,193 to 1,893 over the period. A much larger percentage increase than the expected increase in the number of women from 2,860 to 3,766. The increase in those aged over 90 accounts for 72.5% of the growth in the over 85+ population.
The percentage increase expected in the population of women aged 90+ is much higher in Edinburgh than nationally.
Table 1.11: Percentage change in population, 2018-2030
| Edinburgh | Scotland | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Males | Females | Total | Males | Females | Total | |
| 65+ | 31.0% | 22.3% | 26.1% | 26.6% | 21.8% | 24.0% |
| 90+ | 58.7% | 31.7% | 39.6% | 56.9% | 19.7% | 30.9% |
Table 1.12: Absolute change in population, 2018-2030
| Edinburgh | Scotland | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Males | Females | Total | Males | Females | Total | |
| 65+ | 10,574 | 9,780 | 20,354 | 122,168 | 123,536 | 245,804 |
| 90+ | 700 | 906 | 1,606 | 7,177 | 5,761 | 12,938 |
[6] Population projections for Scottish Areas (2018 based), National Records of Scotland (24 March 2020)
The Improvement Service and NRS along with the Universities of Manchester and Edinburgh have developed sub Council area population projections[7] using past trends in mortality, fertility, and migration to estimate what the population of areas within Councils might look like. These use the citywide data for the 2018 based population projections but show how the increase in population will be seen in different areas across the city.
Table 1.13: Projected population by age and locality 2018-2030
North East
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-17 | 18,201 | 18,345 | 18,495 | 18,710 | 18,846 | 18,999 | 19,063 | 19,084 | 18,991 | 18,891 | 18,798 | 18,567 | 18,380 |
| 18-44 | 57,098 | 57,487 | 57,931 | 58,154 | 58,451 | 58,676 | 58,784 | 58,899 | 59,068 | 59,093 | 59,043 | 59,155 | 59,112 |
| 45-64 | 27,270 | 27,712 | 28,000 | 28,360 | 28,636 | 28,842 | 29,216 | 29,638 | 29,998 | 30,567 | 31,060 | 31,547 | 32,098 |
| 65-74 | 8,470 | 8,692 | 8,969 | 9,243 | 9,256 | 9,518 | 9,812 | 10,125 | 10,465 | 10,754 | 11,133 | 11,448 | 11,758 |
| 75-84 | 5,070 | 5,110 | 5,141 | 5,184 | 5,524 | 5,682 | 5,861 | 5,976 | 6,162 | 6,317 | 6,495 | 6,669 | 6,879 |
| 85+ | 2,283 | 2,311 | 2,304 | 2,295 | 2,289 | 2,322 | 2,319 | 2,332 | 2,342 | 2,358 | 2,389 | 2,438 | 2,477 |
| Total | 118,392 | 119,656 | 120,840 | 121,946 | 123,003 | 124,039 | 125,055 | 126,053 | 127,026 | 127,980 | 128,918 | 129,825 | 130,704 |
North West
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-17 | 29,736 | 30,069 | 30,376 | 30,645 | 30,871 | 31,068 | 31,230 | 31,259 | 31,139 | 31,014 | 30,935 | 30,643 | 30,454 |
| 18-44 | 54,632 | 54,975 | 55,202 | 55,498 | 55,753 | 56,039 | 56,158 | 56,258 | 56,488 | 56,594 | 56,698 | 56,979 | 57,038 |
| 45-64 | 38,874 | 39,019 | 39,309 | 39,373 | 39,383 | 39,347 | 39,403 | 39,571 | 39,685 | 39,926 | 39,987 | 40,136 | 40,364 |
| 65-74 | 13,554 | 13,839 | 14,106 | 14,389 | 14,346 | 14,540 | 14,859 | 15,172 | 15,616 | 16,017 | 16,526 | 16,884 | 17,314 |
| 75-84 | 8,449 | 8,473 | 8,438 | 8,459 | 8,921 | 9,181 | 9,411 | 9,688 | 9,914 | 10,129 | 10,319 | 10,545 | 10,749 |
| 85+ | 3,716 | 3,814 | 3,877 | 3,966 | 4,017 | 4,059 | 4,089 | 4,106 | 4,080 | 4,097 | 4,153 | 4,238 | 4,285 |
| Total | 148,961 | 150,189 | 151,308 | 152,330 | 153,292 | 154,234 | 155,151 | 156,055 | 156,922 | 157,777 | 158,618 | 159,426 | 160,205 |
South East
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-17 | 18,858 | 18,955 | 19,032 | 19,119 | 19,154 | 19,118 | 19,031 | 18,939 | 18,795 | 18,585 | 18,456 | 18,258 | 18,190 |
| 18-44 | 71,125 | 71,575 | 72,014 | 72,370 | 72,579 | 72,929 | 73,214 | 73,477 | 73,820 | 74,163 | 74,449 | 74,793 | 74,941 |
| 45-64 | 27,702 | 27,788 | 27,952 | 27,934 | 27,985 | 27,973 | 28,083 | 28,183 | 28,274 | 28,363 | 28,446 | 28,525 | 28,677 |
| 65-74 | 10,237 | 10,543 | 10,599 | 10,822 | 10,799 | 10,917 | 10,925 | 11,009 | 11,120 | 11,321 | 11,456 | 11,604 | 11,828 |
| 75-84 | 5,714 | 5,811 | 5,973 | 6,137 | 6,533 | 6,765 | 7,096 | 7,382 | 7,622 | 7,831 | 8,035 | 8,258 | 8,319 |
| 85+ | 2,834 | 2,867 | 2,929 | 2,949 | 3,022 | 3,089 | 3,145 | 3,197 | 3,232 | 3,285 | 3,380 | 3,449 | 3,578 |
| Total | 136,470 | 137,540 | 138,499 | 139,331 | 140,073 | 140,791 | 141,493 | 142,187 | 142,864 | 143,549 | 144,222 | 144,888 | 145,534 |
South West
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-17 | 20,071 | 20,144 | 20,164 | 20,253 | 20,334 | 20,349 | 20,307 | 20,240 | 20,117 | 19,952 | 19,844 | 19,631 | 19,481 |
| 18-44 | 50,449 | 50,833 | 51,247 | 51,577 | 51,812 | 52,047 | 52,261 | 52,532 | 52,918 | 53,245 | 53,467 | 53,799 | 54,025 |
| 45-64 | 26,424 | 26,528 | 26,560 | 26,587 | 26,552 | 26,594 | 26,732 | 26,794 | 26,794 | 26,877 | 26,982 | 27,071 | 27,186 |
| 65-74 | 9,808 | 9,833 | 9,967 | 10,005 | 9,895 | 9,830 | 9,826 | 9,917 | 10,070 | 10,145 | 10,374 | 10,586 | 10,743 |
| 75-84 | 5,567 | 5,699 | 5,756 | 5,841 | 6,220 | 6,501 | 6,702 | 6,874 | 7,002 | 7,208 | 7,278 | 7,307 | 7,417 |
| 85+ | 2,358 | 2,420 | 2,493 | 2,572 | 2,615 | 2,689 | 2,755 | 2,794 | 2,811 | 2,839 | 2,882 | 2,987 | 3,065 |
| Total | 114,677 | 115,458 | 116,188 | 116,836 | 117,429 | 118,009 | 118,582 | 119,153 | 119,712 | 120,266 | 120,827 | 121,381 | 121,917 |
Table 1.14: Percentage change in population 2018-2030
The percentage change in population by age group and locality is shown in the table and graph below. Edinburgh and Scotland population changes are shown for comparison.
| North East | North West | South East | South West | Edinburgh | Scotland | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-17 | 1.0% | 2.4% | -3.5% | -2.9% | -0.4% | -5.7% |
| 18-44 | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 1.5% |
| 45-64 | 17.7% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 6.7% | -6.9% |
| 65-74 | 38.8% | 27.7% | 15.5% | 9.5% | 22.8% | 19.4% |
| 75-84 | 35.7% | 27.2% | 45.6% | 33.2% | 34.5% | 30.9% |
| 85+ | 8.5% | 15.3% | 26.2% | 30.0% | 19.8% | 26.5% |
| Total | 10.4% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 2.0% |
| 65+ | 33.4% | 25.8% | 26.3% | 19.7% | 26.1% | 24.0% |
| 90+ | 16.7% | 43.5% | 39.6% | 57.7% | 39.6% | 30.9% |
Key points include:
- The under 18 population grows in the North of the city whereas it decreases in the South.
- The largest growth is in the North East of Edinburgh. The percentage growth for adults aged 45-64 is six times as high in North East as in South West.
- The largest growth for older people aged 65+ is in North East (33.4%) and the largest growth for older people aged 90+ is in South West (57.7%).
Chart 1.2: Projected population Edinburgh localities, 2018-2030
[7] Sub-Council Area Population Projections, The Improvement Service (19 August 2020)
An element of understanding the growth in population is understanding how migration is driving that change. Different groups of people will come to, and leave, Edinburgh at different stages in life. The NRS Total Migration to or from Scotland[8] publication shows that over the last ten years, the average net migration to Edinburgh has been 5,592 people per year. This is the equivalent of an average of 1.1% of the population each year, compared with 0.4% nationally. Over the period a quarter of the net migration to Scotland has been to Edinburgh.
Chart 1.3: Net migration to Edinburgh 2009/10-2018/19
The table below compares the number of people moving to Edinburgh from other areas of Scotland, other areas of the UK and overseas. The overall numbers moving from elsewhere in the UK or overseas for Scotland are given for context.
Table 1.15: Net migration 2018/19
| Total | Within Scotland | Rest of UK | Overseas | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edinburgh | 5,910 | -2,830 | 2,030 | 6,710 |
| Scotland | 30,200 | n/a | 10,000 | 20,200 |
The table above shows that more people leave Edinburgh to live elsewhere in Scotland than move from elsewhere in Scotland to live in Edinburgh (-2,830). It also shows that a fifth of net migration from the rest of the UK to Scotland is to Edinburgh (2,030 out of 10,000) and that a third of net overseas migration to Scotland is to Edinburgh (6,710 out of 20,200).
The impact of leaving the EU on migration also needs taken into account when considering future population flows. The Expert Advisory Group on Migration and Population in their July 2020 update[9] continued to hold to their original February 2019 projections, following publication of the UK Government’s February 2020 policy statement on the points-based immigration system[10], that net overseas migration to Scotland will fall by between 30% and 50%.
The net migration figures hide the high numbers of people arriving and leaving. This is important when it comes to ensuring that services have capacity to cope, not only with volume of service provision, but in relation to the turnover of service users.
Table 1.16: Migration flows, Edinburgh 2018/19
| Within Scotland | Rest of UK | Overseas | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| In | 11,700 | 9,840 | 10,990 | 32,520 |
| Out | 14,530 | 7,810 | 4,280 | 26,620 |
| Net total | -2,830 | 2,030 | 6,710 | 5,910 |
| Total individuals migrating | 26,230 | 17,650 | 15,270 | 59,140 |
The net migration of 5,910 (1.1% of the 2018 estimated population) masks that there were 59,140 (11.4%) either arriving or leaving Edinburgh in 2018/19.[/fusion_table]
[8] Total Migration to and from Scotland, National Records of Scotland (30 April 2020)
[9] UK Immigration Policy After Leaving the EU – Impacts on Scotland’s Economy, Population and Society – July 2020 update, Expert Advisory Group on Population and Migration (July 2020)
[10] The UK’s points-based immigration system: policy statement, Home Office (19 February 2020)
The Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD)[11] provides a relative measure of deprivation across Scotland. A revision to the original SIMD 2020 release was made in April 2020, and this analysis is based on that revised dataset. The SIMD identifies deprived areas, not deprived people. Not everyone who is deprived will live in a deprived area. Equally, people who are not deprived may live in a deprived area. Deprivation is not synonymous with poverty, rather it indicates that an area has fewer resources and opportunities.
The country is split into 6,976 small areas called datazones and deprivation is identified across seven, differently weighted, domains: income, employment, education, health, access to services, crime and housing. Each datazone is then ranked into order from least to most deprived. It is important to remember that as it is a relative measure it is not possible to say that one datazone is twice as deprived as another.
There are 597 datazones in Edinburgh. The mean population of the datazones in Edinburgh is 860 (ranging from 258 [an area in Oxgangs] to 3,847 [including the Riccarton campus of Heriot-Watt University] and a median of 836). By ranking all datazones in Scotland from most deprived to least deprived it is possible to see what proportion of the population in Edinburgh live in the 20% most deprived areas of the country, as well as the other quintiles to the 20% least deprived.
The table below shows the proportion of population in each locality living in each deprivation quintile (this uses the 2017 based NRS small area population estimates as these are the latest available data and used in the Scottish Government SIMD 2020v2 analysis).
Table 1.17: Percentage of population in deprivation quintile by locality
| North East | North West | South East | South West | Edinburgh | Scotland | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 (Most deprived) | 16.5% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 12.6% | 11.6% | 19.5% |
| 2 | 19.1% | 11.1% | 13.3% | 13.8% | 14.1% | 19.5% |
| 3 | 18.7% | 9.2% | 13.5% | 16.2% | 14.1% | 19.8% |
| 4 | 21.2% | 17.6% | 13.1% | 15.4% | 16.7% | 20.5% |
| 5 (Least deprived) | 24.6% | 53.1% | 50.7% | 42.1% | 43.5% | 20.7% |
| Grand Total | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
Key points include:
- Over half of the population in both North West and South East live in the 20% least deprived datazones in Scotland.
- North East has the highest proportions living in the most deprived datazones.
- In North West almost six times as many people live in the 20% least deprived datazones as in the most deprived datazones whereas, in North East only 1.5 times as many people live in the 20% least deprived datazones as in the most deprived datazones.
- Just slightly more than 1 in 9 people (11.6%) in Edinburgh live in the 20% most deprived areas of Scotland.
- Just over 2 in 5 people (43.5%) in Edinburgh live in the 20% least deprived areas of Scotland.
- Across Scotland, as expected, a fifth of the population live in each deprivation quintile.
A more detailed briefing note on SIMD 2020 was prepared by the Strategy and Communications team in City of Edinburgh Council for their Elected Members.
The report highlights:
- Edinburgh’s share of the most deprived areas in Scotland has decreased since the last SIMD in 2016. Of the 20% most deprived data zones in Scotland, 5.0% are in Edinburgh, compared to 5.9% in SIMD 2016.
- In 2020, Edinburgh is the local authority with the seventh highest proportion of data zones in the 20% most deprived areas.
- Whilst deprivation exists in Edinburgh, most of the City’s data zones rank amongst the least deprived areas in Scotland. 45.2% of Edinburgh’s data zones are in the 20% least deprived areas of Scotland. This is similar to the pattern observed for SIMD 2016 when 42% of Edinburgh’s data zones were in the 20% least deprived.
[11] Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation 2020, Scottish Government (28 January 2020)
The NRS Household estimates of households and dwellings 2019[12] publication details that there were estimated to be 238,269 households and 252,731 dwellings in Edinburgh, including 1,809 second homes. There were 8,462 vacant dwellings in Edinburgh, of which 5,608 are long term empty homes. A household means a group of people living together in a dwelling, whether they are alone, or living with others whether related or not. The average household size was 2.14. This average is based on removing people living in communal establishments and student halls of residence.
Of the 238,269 households, two fifths (40.2%; 95,824) were estimated to be single person households. It is estimated that 28,399 people aged over 65 are living in single person households. This represents approximately 36% of the over 65 population.
Projections for the number of households, as for population, are produced by NRS. The NRS Household projections (2018-based)[13] publication provides detail on a number of household types. These are summarised in the table below.
Table 1.18: Projections of household by household type, Edinburgh 2018-2030
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 person female | 47,418 | 47,779 | 48,203 | 48,615 | 49,246 | 49,840 | 50,419 | 50,959 | 51,488 | 52,114 | 52,682 | 53,269 | 53,823 |
| 1 person male | 47,065 | 48,045 | 49,150 | 50,213 | 50,683 | 51,169 | 51,673 | 52,150 | 52,642 | 53,135 | 53,570 | 53,989 | 54,384 |
| 1 adult, 1+ child(ren) | 12,436 | 12,575 | 12,746 | 12,892 | 12,976 | 13,074 | 13,178 | 13,283 | 13,387 | 13,483 | 13,576 | 13,662 | 13,740 |
| 2 person all adult | 73,257 | 74,129 | 75,068 | 75,999 | 76,896 | 77,596 | 78,216 | 78,745 | 79,171 | 79,526 | 79,944 | 80,407 | 80,860 |
| 2+ adults, 1+ child(ren) | 37,129 | 37,374 | 37,724 | 38,061 | 38,503 | 38,916 | 39,349 | 39,780 | 40,208 | 40,601 | 40,967 | 41,305 | 41,601 |
| 3+ person all adults | 18,467 | 18,366 | 18,281 | 18,174 | 18,238 | 18,245 | 18,269 | 18,305 | 18,359 | 18,425 | 18,505 | 18,623 | 18,749 |
| All households | 235,772 | 238,268 | 241,172 | 243,954 | 246,542 | 248,840 | 251,104 | 253,222 | 255,255 | 257,284 | 259,244 | 261,255 | 263,157 |
The graph below shows that the increase in single person households exceeds the growth in all households, both in Edinburgh and nationally.
Chart 1.4: Projected households Edinburgh and Scotland 2018-2030
In Edinburgh, in comparison with the 7.7% increase in population expected over the period 2018-2030, the anticipated increase in the overall number of households is expected to be 11.6%; with single person households expected to increase by 14.5%. This will result in the average household size decreasing from 2.20 to 2.12 over the period.
The projections as published by NRS do not include the modification to remove people living in communal establishments and student halls of residence as the assumptions underpinning these households may change as time progresses (due to changes in the way care is provided or changes in Higher Education). The projected average household size is therefore not comparable to the 2019 estimate of average household size of 2.14 that was noted earlier.
In Scotland there is projected to be 2.0% increase in the population coupled with a 5.5% increase in the number of households. The number of single person households is expected to increase by 9.3%. The average household size across Scotland, as calculated in the same way above, also decreases from 2.20 to 2.12 between 2018 and 2030.
Key points include:
- The number of households in Edinburgh is expected to increase by 11.6% between 2018 and 2030.
- Two fifths (40.2%) of households in Edinburgh are single person households compared with 36.0% nationally.
The proportion of single person households is expected to increase slightly to 41.1% by 2030 in Edinburgh and 37.3% nationally.
[12] Estimates of Households and Dwellings in Scotland, 2019, National Records of Scotland (18 June 2020)
[13] Household Projections for Scotland, 2018-based, National Records of Scotland (29 September 2020)