Population and demographics

This paper gives an overview of the population of Edinburgh, both current and projected. The data are taken from a number of sources, most of which were published during 2020; some high-level estimates were published in 2022. No consideration has been made for the effect of COVID-19 on the population, however, this will become apparent in future updates to NRS estimates and projections.

There are seven sections in this chapter considering:

  • Population estimates for the City of Edinburgh and its localities
  • Ethnicity
  • Country of birth and nationality
  • Population projections, to 2030, again for the City and its localities
  • Migration trends
  • An overview of deprivation data
  • Household estimates and projections for the City.

Key points

Detailed key points are highlighted at the end of each section, however, as a summary, a number are noted here:

  • The population of Edinburgh in mid-2021 was estimated to be 526,470
    • 15.4% of the population are 65+

  • North West is the largest locality accounting for 28.5% of the population of Edinburgh
  • The overall population of Edinburgh is expected to grow by 7.7% between 2018 and 2030
    • Each of the older population age groups in Edinburgh and Scotland are expected to grow by at least a fifth
    • The largest growth is expected in the North East locality
  • Just over 2 in 5 people (43.5%) in Edinburgh live in the 20% least deprived areas of Scotland
    • Over half of the population in both North West and South East live in the 20% least deprived datazones in Scotland
    • North East has the highest proportion living in the most deprived datazones
  • Two fifths of households in Edinburgh are single person households.

Comparisons against the national data are also included where appropriate.

Population estimate

Data in this section are drawn from the National Records of Scotland (NRS) Mid-2021 Population Estimates[1], the latest available data.

Table 1.1: Estimated population of Edinburgh, mid-2021

Male Female Total
0-17 44,840 42,711 87,551
18-44 115,675 120,429 236,104
45-64 60,384 61,154 121,538
65-74 21,184 23,083 44,267
75-84 10,772 14,644 25,416
85+ 4,114 7,480 11,594
Total 256,969 269,501 526,470

Key points include:

  • The population of Edinburgh in mid-2021 was estimated to be 526,470.
  • 51.2% of the population are female.
  • 16.6% of the population are under 18.
  • 15.4% of the population are 65+.
  • 2.2% of the population are 85+.

Population estimates for localities

As required in the Public Bodies (Joint Working) (Scotland) Act 2014, the legislation underpinning the integration of Health and Social Care, the Integration Joint Board is required to prepare a strategic plan that divides the area it covers into at least two localities.

The locality boundaries for the Edinburgh Health and Social Care Partnership can be found as a layer within the Health section of the City of Edinburgh Council’s Atlas. The boundaries for the Health and Social Care Partnership are coterminous with the City of Edinburgh Council locality boundaries.

For reference the boundaries are shown in the map below, however it recommended to view the boundaries on the atlas for greater detail and clarity.

Map 1.1: Locality boundaries for the Edinburgh Health and Social Care Partnership

The NRS Mid-2019 Small Area Population Estimates for 2011 Data Zones[2] allow the population in each locality to be estimated. The tables below show the population split by locality and age group; first the population and secondly the distribution of the age groups across the population in each locality.

Table 1.2: Estimated population of localities in Edinburgh, mid-2019

North East North West South East South West Total
0-17 18,017 29,759 18,817 20,888 87,481
18-44 57,211 54,927 71,127 53,764 237,029
45-64 27,553 38,737 27,389 27,386 121,065
65-74 8,621 13,807 10,300 10,154 42,882
75-84 5008 8,431 5,722 5,881 25,042
85+ 2,350 3,756 2,845 2,480 11,431
Total    118,760 149,417 136,200 120,553 524,930
Of Edinburgh population 22.6% 28.5% 25.9% 23.0% 100.0%

Table 1.3: Percentage of population by age group in localities, Edinburgh and Scotland, mid-2019

North East North West South East South West Total Scotland
0-17 15.2% 19.9% 13.8% 17.3% 16.7% 18.8%
18-44 48.2% 36.8% 52.2% 44.6% 45.2% 34.6%
45-64 23.2% 25.9% 20.1% 22.7% 23.1% 27.5%
65-74 7.3% 9.2% 7.6% 8.4% 8.2% 10.6%
75-84 4.2% 5.6% 4.2% 4.9% 4.8% 6.2%
85+ 2.0% 2.5% 2.1% 2.1% 2.2% 2.3%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Key points include:

  • North West is the largest locality accounting for 28.5% of the population of Edinburgh
  • North East is the smallest locality accounting for 22.6% of the population of Edinburgh
  • North East is the locality with the lowest number of older people, accounting for 20.1% of the 65+ population in Edinburgh
  • North West has the highest proportions of population in every age group except the 18-44 age group
  • South East has the highest proportion of people aged 18-44 at 52.2%.

[1] Mid-2021 Population Estimates Scotland, National Records of Scotland https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/files//statistics/population-estimates/mid-21/mid-year-pop-est-21-data.xlsx (July 2022)

[2] Mid-2019 Small Area Population Estimates for 2011 Data Zones, National Records of Scotland https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-estimates/2011-based-special-area-population-estimates/small-area-population-estimates/mid-2019 (27 August 2020)

Profile of Ethnicity in Edinburgh

There are little recent data on the ethnicity of people living in Edinburgh. The NRS 2011 Census results[3] remain the main source of data on ethnicity of the Scottish population. The next census in Scotland is due to take place in 2022, delayed for a year due to COVID-19.

Table 1.4: Ethnicity 2011, Edinburgh

0-17 18-44 45-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages
White: Total 71,898 188,925 108,925 33,439 24,169 9,811 437,167
White: Scottish 62,397 122,902 90,691 29,010 21,526 8,461 334,987
White: Other British 4,664 31,930 13,045 3,396 2,022 1,075 56,132
White: Irish 321 5,991 1,467 422 298 104 8,603
White: Gypsy/Traveller 77 239 52 13 6 1 388
White: Polish 2,344 9,480 858 39 45 54 12,820
White: Other White 2,095 18,383 2,812 559 272 116 24,237
Mixed or multiple ethnic groups       1,701 2,017 290 53 17 9 4,087
Asian, Asian Scottish or Asian British 5,374 17,032 3,032 489 291 46 26,264
African 1,137 2,797 482 38 18 2 4,474
Caribbean or Black       243 549 209 16 10 4 1,031
Other ethnic groups     983 2,147 398 46 23 6 3,603
All people 81,336 213,467  113,336 34,081 24,528 9,878 476,626

Table 1.5: Ethnicity 2011, Edinburgh

0-17 18-44 45-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages
White: Total 88.4% 88.5% 96.1%  98.1% 98.5% 99.3% 91.7%
White: Scottish 76.7% 57.6% 80.0% 85.1% 87.8% 85.7% 70.3%
White: Other British 5.7% 15.0% 11.5% 10.0% 8.2% 10.9% 11.8%
White: Irish 0.4% 2.8% 1.3% 1.2% 1.2% 1.1% 1.8%
White: Gypsy/Traveller 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
White: Polish 2.9% 4.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 2.7%
White: Other White 2.6% 8.6% 2.5% 1.6% 1.1% 1.2% 5.1%
Mixed or multiple ethnic groups       2.1%   0.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.9%
Asian, Asian Scottish or Asian British 6.6% 8.0% 2.7% 1.4% 1.2% 0.5% 5.5%
African 1.4% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.9%
Caribbean or Black       0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%  0.0% 0.2%
Other ethnic groups     1.2%      1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.8%
All people 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Table 1.6: Ethnicity 2011, Scotland

0-17 18-44 45-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages
White: Total 94.4% 93.9% 98.1% 99.0% 99.2% 99.5% 96.0%
White: Scottish 86.9% 78.6% 86.0% 88.2% 89.9% 87.7% 84.0%
White: Other British 4.4% 8.4% 9.4% 8.9% 7.4% 9.5% 7.9%
White: Irish 0.4% 1.3% 1.0% 1.2% 1.3% 1.3% 1.0%
White: Gypsy/Traveller 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
White: Polish 1.3% 2.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 1.2%
White: Other White 1.3% 3.4% 1.2% 0.7% 0.6% 0.8% 1.9%
Mixed or multiple ethnic groups       0.9%
0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4%
Asian, Asian Scottish or Asian British 3.3% 4.2% 1.4% 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% 2.7%
African 0.8% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6%
Caribbean or Black       0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%  0.0% 0.1%
Other ethnic groups     0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3%
All people 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Key points from the 2011 census include:

  • 91.7% of the population of Edinburgh (437,167 out of 476,626 people) were white
  • The percentage of the population that is white in Edinburgh increases by age group from 88.4% for under 18 to 99.3% for 85 and over; 91.7% overall. In Scotland it increases from the 18-44 age group from 93.9% to 99.5%; 96.0% overall, however the proportion that were white aged under 18 was 94.4%, slightly more than the 18-44 age group
  • In both Edinburgh and Scotland there were very small numbers of people aged 65 and over who are Asian, African, Caribbean or Black. Each group not exceeding 0.1% of the respective age group
  • Edinburgh has twice the national proportion of people who are Asian.

A paper prepared for the previous iteration of the JSNA on the Health and Care Needs of People from Minority Ethnic Communities was published in April 2018[4] and remains the most up to date analysis on the topic.

[3] Scotland’s Census, 2011 Census results, National Records of Scotland https://www.scotlandscensus.gov.uk/ (26 September 2013)

[4] Health and Care Needs of People from Minority Ethnic Communities, Edinburgh Health and Social Care Partnership, https://www.edinburghhsc.scot/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/JSNA-Health-Needs-of-Minority-Ethnic-Communities-Edinburgh-April-2018.pdf (April 2018)

The Annual Population Survey provides estimate of the Scottish population by both nationality and country of birth. The results are published in the NRS Population by Country of Birth and Nationality, Scotland, July 2020 to June 2021 [5] publication. Information is provided on the number of non-British nationals and non-UK born living in each local authority area in Scotland.

The table below shows the percentage of the population of the country of birth and nationality of people living in Edinburgh and Scotland.

Table 1.7: Country of birth and nationality, 2020-21

Birth Nationality
Edinburgh  Scotland Edinburgh Scotland
UK 75.3% 90.3% 80.4% 92.6%
EU (Total) 12.8% 4.8% 11.8% 4.3%
EU 14 7.8% 2.5% 6.8% 2.1%
EU 8 3.5% 1.9% 3.7% 1.9%
EU 2 1.2% 0.3% 0.8% 0.2%
EU other 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Other Europe 0.2% 0.1%
Asia 5.4% 2.2% 3.7% 1.4%
Rest of World 6.2% 2.5% 4.1% 1.6%

Due to low numbers, not all figures were published to protect personal information.

Key points include:

  • The proportion of people living in Edinburgh who are not born in UK or British nationals is at least twice the Scottish proportion in all categories bar EU8 (where data are published).
  • More than one in five people living in Edinburgh were not born in the UK and just under one in five are not British nationals.
  • Nationally around one in ten were not born in the UK and are not British nationals.

[5] Population by Country of Birth and Nationality, Scotland, July 2020 to June 2021, National Records of Scotland, https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/files//statistics/population-estimates/pop-cob-nat-20-21/pop-cob-nat-20-21-tables.xlsx (25 November 2021)

The latest population projections are based on the NRS Population Projections for Scottish Areas (2018-based)[6] publication. Projections are based on what has happened in the past rather than predicting the impact of events. As such the projections do not take account of COVID-19 or the impact of leaving the EU. The analysis in this chapter is based on the principal projection by NRS, however, other projections based on different assumptions for migration and fertility are also produced. It should be noted that the mid-2018 projection gives a lower overall citywide population for 2019 than the mid-2019 estimate; population projections are not revised every year.

The graph below shows that the age groups with the greatest population growth until 2030 are for those aged 65 and over. The age group showing the largest increase is 75-84. The under 18 age group, although showing an increase for a number of years, by 2030 is projected to be smaller than in 2018.

The increasing population in the older people age groups are driving the overall percentage increase in population. The older age groups have increases above the overall increase and the age groups under 65 all have increases below the overall increase.

Chart 1.1: Projected population Edinburgh 2018-2030

The table below shows the projection populations by age group and gender from the 2018 base year to 2030.

Table 1.8: Projected population by age and gender 2018-2030

Males

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
0-17 44,566 44,953 45,245 45,567 45,789 45,893 45,981 45,936 45,704 45,446 45,296 44,873 44,586
18-44 114,371 115,115 115,971 116,679 117,259 117,960 118,263 118,698 119,316 119,833 120,071 120,693 120,954
45-64 59,926 60,351 60,777 60,987 61,209 61,354 61,845 62,281 62,533 62,897 63,282 63,646 64,096
65-74  19,925 20,351 20,720 21,231 21,145 21,395 21,644 22,037 22,582 23,054 23,696 24,146 24,749
75-84 10,445 10,633 10,783 10,935 11,732 12,242 12,752 13,147 13,560 14,003 14,346 14,681 14,970
85+ 3,756 3,889 4,049 4,158 4,247 4,314 4,379 4,450 4,467 4,514 4,643 4,824 4,981
Total            252,989 255,292 257,545 259,557 261,381 263,158 264,864  266,549  268,162 269,747 271,334 272,863 274,336

Females

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
0-17 42,300 42,560 42,822 43,159 43,416 43,641 43,650 43,586 43,338 42,996 42,737 42,226 41,919
18-44 118,933 119,755 120,423 120,921 121,337 121,731 122,154 122,468 122,978 123,263 123,586 124,034 124,162
45-64 60,344 60,696 61,043 61,267 61,348 61,402 61,589 61,906 62,218 62,836 63,193 63,634 64,229
65-74 22,144 22,556 22,921 23,228 23,151 23,409 23,778 24,186 24,689 25,183 25,793 26,376 26,895
75-84 14,355 14,460 14,526 14,686 15,466 15,887 16,318 16,773 17,140 17,482 17,781 18,098 18,395
85+ 7,435 7,523 7,555 7,625 7,697 7,845 7,928 7,979 7,999 8,065 8,161 8,289 8,424
Total            265,511 267,550 269,290 270,886 272,415 273,915 275,417 276,898 278,362 279,825 281,251 282,657 284,024

All people

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
0-17 86,866 87,513 88,067 88,726 89,205 89,534 89,631 89,522 89,042 88,442 88,033 87,099 86,505
18-44 233,304 234,870 236,394 237,600 238,596 239,691 240,417 241,166 242,294 243,096 243,657 244,727 245,116
45-64 120,270 121,047 121,820 122,254 122,557 122,756 123,434 124,187 124,751 125,733 126,475 127,280 128,325
65-74 42,069 42,907 43,641 44,459 44,296 44,804 45,422 46,223 47,271 48,237 49,489 50,522 51,644
75-84 24,800 25,093 25,309 25,621 27,198 28,129 29,070 29,920 30,700 31,485 32,127 32,779 33,365
85+ 11,191 11,412 11,604 11,783 11,944 12,159 12,307 12,429 12,466 12,579 12,804 13,113 13,405
Total            518,500 522,842 526,835 530,443 533,796 537,073 540,281 543,447 546,524 549,572 552,585 555,520 558,360

Overall the population of Edinburgh is expected to grow by 7.7% over the period from 2018 to 2030, however, this masks the expected change in population for certain age groups.

The overall growth in population is larger in Edinburgh than nationally, however, the distribution of that growth varies substantially when compared against specific age groups.

Table 1.9: Percentage change in population 2018-2030

Edinburgh Scotland
Males Females Total Males Females Total
0-17 0.0% -0.9% -0.4% -5.5% -5.9% -5.7%
18-44 5.8% 4.4% 5.1% 2.8% 0.2% 1.5%
45-64 7.0% 6.4% 6.7% -7.3% -6.6% -6.9%
65-74 24.2% 21.5% 22.8% 18.4% 20.3% 19.4%
75-84 43.3% 28.1% 34.5% 37.5% 25.8% 30.9%
85+ 32.6% 13.3% 19.8% 42.4% 18.0% 26.5%
Total 8.4% 7.0% 7.7% 2.5% 1.6% 2.0%

Table 1.10: Absolute change in population, Edinburgh 2018-2030

Edinburgh
Males  Females Total
0-17 20 -381 -361
18-44 6,583 5,229 11,812
45-64 4,170 3,885 8,055
65-74 4,824 4,751 9,575
75-84 4,525 4,040 8,565
85+ 1,225 989 2,214
Total 21,347 18,513 39,860

Key points include:

  • The under 18 population in Edinburgh is expected to fall slightly, but much less than nationally.
  • The adult 18-64 population in Edinburgh is expected to grow by just under the overall population increase of 7.7% (39,860 people), whereas it will fall nationally.
  • Each of the older population age groups in Edinburgh and Scotland are expected to grow by at least a fifth.
  • The 85+ age group is expected to grow more nationally than in Edinburgh.
  • The percentage increases in the male population are larger for each age group than the expected increases in the female population in Edinburgh.

Looking specifically in greater detail at the expected population increases of the older population by gender the figures are particularly striking. In Edinburgh, the number of men aged 90+ is projected to rise from 1,193 to 1,893 over the period. A much larger percentage increase than the expected increase in the number of women from 2,860 to 3,766. The increase in those aged over 90 accounts for 72.5% of the growth in the over 85+ population.

The percentage increase expected in the population of women aged 90+ is much higher in Edinburgh than nationally.

Table 1.11: Percentage change in population, 2018-2030

Edinburgh Scotland
Males Females Total Males Females Total
65+ 31.0% 22.3% 26.1% 26.6% 21.8% 24.0%
90+ 58.7%  31.7% 39.6% 56.9% 19.7% 30.9%

Table 1.12: Absolute change in population, 2018-2030

Edinburgh Scotland
Males Females Total Males Females Total
65+ 10,574 9,780 20,354 122,168 123,536 245,804
90+ 700 906 1,606 7,177 5,761 12,938

[6] Population projections for Scottish Areas (2018 based), National Records of Scotland https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-projections/sub-national-population-projections/2018-based  (24 March 2020)[/fusion_table]

The Improvement Service and NRS along with the Universities of Manchester and Edinburgh have developed sub Council area population projections[7] using past trends in mortality, fertility, and migration to estimate what the population of areas within Councils might look like. These use the citywide data for the 2018 based population projections but show how the increase in population will be seen in different areas across the city.

Table 1.13: Projected population by age and locality 2018-2030

North East

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
0-17 18,201 18,345 18,495 18,710 18,846 18,999 19,063 19,084 18,991 18,891 18,798 18,567 18,380
18-44 57,098 57,487 57,931 58,154 58,451 58,676 58,784 58,899 59,068 59,093 59,043 59,155 59,112
45-64 27,270 27,712 28,000 28,360 28,636 28,842 29,216 29,638 29,998 30,567 31,060 31,547 32,098
65-74 8,470 8,692 8,969 9,243 9,256 9,518 9,812 10,125 10,465 10,754 11,133 11,448 11,758
75-84 5,070 5,110 5,141 5,184 5,524 5,682 5,861 5,976 6,162 6,317 6,495 6,669 6,879
85+ 2,283 2,311 2,304 2,295 2,289 2,322 2,319 2,332 2,342 2,358 2,389 2,438 2,477
Total    118,392 119,656 120,840 121,946 123,003 124,039 125,055 126,053 127,026  127,980 128,918 129,825 130,704

North West

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
0-17 29,736 30,069 30,376 30,645 30,871 31,068 31,230 31,259 31,139 31,014 30,935 30,643 30,454
18-44 54,632 54,975 55,202 55,498 55,753 56,039 56,158 56,258 56,488 56,594 56,698 56,979 57,038
45-64 38,874 39,019 39,309 39,373 39,383 39,347 39,403 39,571 39,685 39,926 39,987 40,136 40,364
65-74 13,554 13,839 14,106 14,389 14,346 14,540 14,859 15,172 15,616 16,017 16,526 16,884 17,314
75-84 8,449 8,473 8,438 8,459 8,921 9,181 9,411 9,688 9,914 10,129 10,319 10,545 10,749
85+ 3,716 3,814 3,877 3,966 4,017 4,059 4,089 4,106 4,080 4,097 4,153 4,238 4,285
Total    148,961 150,189 151,308 152,330 153,292 154,234 155,151 156,055 156,922 157,777 158,618 159,426 160,205

South East

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
0-17 18,858 18,955 19,032 19,119 19,154 19,118 19,031 18,939 18,795 18,585 18,456 18,258 18,190
18-44 71,125 71,575 72,014 72,370 72,579 72,929 73,214 73,477 73,820 74,163 74,449 74,793 74,941
45-64 27,702 27,788 27,952 27,934 27,985 27,973 28,083 28,183 28,274 28,363 28,446 28,525 28,677
65-74 10,237 10,543 10,599 10,822 10,799 10,917 10,925 11,009 11,120 11,321 11,456 11,604 11,828
75-84 5,714 5,811 5,973 6,137 6,533 6,765 7,096 7,382 7,622 7,831 8,035 8,258 8,319
85+ 2,834 2,867 2,929 2,949 3,022 3,089 3,145 3,197 3,232 3,285 3,380 3,449 3,578
Total    136,470 137,540 138,499 139,331 140,073 140,791 141,493 142,187 142,864 143,549 144,222 144,888 145,534

South West

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
0-17 20,071 20,144 20,164 20,253 20,334 20,349 20,307 20,240 20,117 19,952 19,844 19,631 19,481
18-44 50,449 50,833 51,247 51,577 51,812 52,047 52,261 52,532 52,918 53,245 53,467 53,799 54,025
45-64 26,424 26,528 26,560 26,587 26,552 26,594 26,732 26,794 26,794 26,877 26,982 27,071 27,186
65-74 9,808 9,833 9,967 10,005 9,895 9,830 9,826 9,917 10,070 10,145 10,374 10,586 10,743
75-84 5,567 5,699 5,756 5,841 6,220 6,501 6,702 6,874 7,002 7,208 7,278 7,307 7,417
85+ 2,358 2,420 2,493 2,572 2,615 2,689 2,755 2,794 2,811 2,839 2,882 2,987 3,065
Total    114,677 115,458 116,188 116,836 117,429 118,009 118,582 119,153 119,712 120,266 120,827 121,381 121,917

Table 1.14: Percentage change in population 2018-2030
The percentage change in population by age group and locality is shown in the table and graph below. Edinburgh and Scotland population changes are shown for comparison.

North East North West South East South West Edinburgh Scotland
0-17 1.0% 2.4% -3.5% -2.9% -0.4% -5.7%
18-44 3.5% 4.4% 5.4% 7.1% 5.1% 1.5%
45-64 17.7% 3.8% 3.5% 2.9% 6.7% -6.9%
65-74 38.8% 27.7% 15.5% 9.5% 22.8% 19.4%
75-84 35.7% 27.2% 45.6% 33.2% 34.5% 30.9%
85+ 8.5% 15.3% 26.2% 30.0% 19.8% 26.5%
Total 10.4% 7.5% 6.6% 6.3% 7.7% 2.0%
65+ 33.4% 25.8% 26.3% 19.7% 26.1% 24.0%
90+ 16.7% 43.5% 39.6% 57.7% 39.6% 30.9%

Key points include:

  • The under 18 population grows in the North of the city whereas it decreases in the South.
  • The largest growth is in the North East of Edinburgh. The percentage growth for adults aged 45-64 is six times as high in North East as in South West.
  • The largest growth for older people aged 65+ is in North East (33.4%) and the largest growth for older people aged 90+ is in South West (57.7%).

Chart 1.2: Projected population Edinburgh localities, 2018-2030

[7] Sub-Council Area Population Projections, The Improvement Service https://www.improvementservice.org.uk/products-and-services/data-and-intelligence2/sub-council-area-population-projections/sub-council-area-population-projections2  (19 August 2020)

An element of understanding the growth in population is understanding how migration is driving that change. Different groups of people will come to, and leave, Edinburgh at different stages in life. The NRS Total Migration to or from Scotland[8] publication shows that over the last ten years, the average net migration to Edinburgh has been 5,592 people per year. This is the equivalent of an average of 1.1% of the population each year, compared with 0.4% nationally. Over the period a quarter of the net migration to Scotland has been to Edinburgh.

Chart 1.3: Net migration to Edinburgh 2009/10-2018/19

The table below compares the number of people moving to Edinburgh from other areas of Scotland, other areas of the UK and overseas. The overall numbers moving from elsewhere in the UK or overseas for Scotland are given for context.

Table 1.15: Net migration 2018/19

Total Within Scotland Rest of UK Overseas
Edinburgh 5,910 -2,830 2,030 6,710
Scotland 30,200 n/a 10,000 20,200

The table above shows that more people leave Edinburgh to live elsewhere in Scotland than move from elsewhere in Scotland to live in Edinburgh (-2,830). It also shows that a fifth of net migration from the rest of the UK to Scotland is to Edinburgh (2,030 out of 10,000) and that a third of net overseas migration to Scotland is to Edinburgh (6,710 out of 20,200).

The impact of leaving the EU on migration also needs taken into account when considering future population flows. The Expert Advisory Group on Migration and Population in their July 2020 update[9] continued to hold to their original February 2019 projections, following publication of the UK Government’s February 2020 policy statement on the points-based immigration system[10], that net overseas migration to Scotland will fall by between 30% and 50%.

The net migration figures hide the high numbers of people arriving and leaving. This is important when it comes to ensuring that services have capacity to cope, not only with volume of service provision, but in relation to the turnover of service users.

Table 1.16: Migration flows, Edinburgh 2018/19

Within Scotland Rest of UK Overseas Total
In 11,700 9,840 10,990 32,520
Out 14,530 7,810 4,280 26,620
Net total     -2,830 2,030 6,710 5,910
Total individuals migrating 26,230 17,650 15,270 59,140

The net migration of 5,910 (1.1% of the 2018 estimated population) masks that there were 59,140 (11.4%) either arriving or leaving Edinburgh in 2018/19.[/fusion_table]

[8] Total Migration to and from Scotland, National Records of Scotland https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/migration/migration-statistics/migration-flows/total-migration-to-or-from-scotland (30 April 2020)

[9] UK Immigration Policy After Leaving the EU – Impacts on Scotland’s Economy, Population and Society – July 2020 update, Expert Advisory Group on Population and Migration https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publications/independent-report/2020/07/uk-immigration-policy-leaving-eu-impacts-scotlands-economy-population-society-july-2020-update/documents/uk-immigration-policy-leaving-eu-impacts-scotlands-economy-population-society-july-2020-update/uk-immigration-policy-leaving-eu-impacts-scotlands-economy-population-society-july-2020-update/govscot%3Adocument/uk-immigration-policy-leaving-eu-impacts-scotlands-economy-population-society-july-2020-update.pdf (July 2020)

[10] The UK’s points-based immigration system: policy statement, Home Office https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-uks-points-based-immigration-system-policy-statement/the-uks-points-based-immigration-system-policy-statement (19 February 2020)

The Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD)[11] provides a relative measure of deprivation across Scotland. A revision to the original SIMD 2020 release was made in April 2020, and this analysis is based on that revised dataset. The SIMD identifies deprived areas, not deprived people. Not everyone who is deprived will live in a deprived area. Equally, people who are not deprived may live in a deprived area. Deprivation is not synonymous with poverty, rather it indicates that an area has fewer resources and opportunities.

The country is split into 6,976 small areas called datazones and deprivation is identified across seven, differently weighted, domains: income, employment, education, health, access to services, crime and housing. Each datazone is then ranked into order from least to most deprived. It is important to remember that as it is a relative measure it is not possible to say that one datazone is twice as deprived as another.

There are 597 datazones in Edinburgh. The mean population of the datazones in Edinburgh is 860 (ranging from 258 [an area in Oxgangs] to 3,847 [including the Riccarton campus of Heriot-Watt University] and a median of 836). By ranking all datazones in Scotland from most deprived to least deprived it is possible to see what proportion of the population in Edinburgh live in the 20% most deprived areas of the country, as well as the other quintiles to the 20% least deprived.

The table below shows the proportion of population in each locality living in each deprivation quintile (this uses the 2017 based NRS small area population estimates as these are the latest available data and used in the Scottish Government SIMD 2020v2 analysis).

Table 1.17: Percentage of population in deprivation quintile by locality

North East North West South East South West Edinburgh Scotland
1 (Most deprived) 16.5% 9.0% 9.4% 12.6% 11.6% 19.5%
2 19.1% 11.1% 13.3% 13.8% 14.1% 19.5%
3 18.7% 9.2% 13.5% 16.2% 14.1% 19.8%
4 21.2% 17.6% 13.1% 15.4% 16.7% 20.5%
5 (Least deprived) 24.6% 53.1% 50.7% 42.1% 43.5% 20.7%
Grand Total      100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Key points include:

  • Over half of the population in both North West and South East live in the 20% least deprived datazones in Scotland.
  • North East has the highest proportions living in the most deprived datazones.
  • In North West almost six times as many people live in the 20% least deprived datazones as in the most deprived datazones whereas, in North East only 1.5 times as many people live in the 20% least deprived datazones as in the most deprived datazones.
  • Just slightly more than 1 in 9 people (11.6%) in Edinburgh live in the 20% most deprived areas of Scotland.
  • Just over 2 in 5 people (43.5%) in Edinburgh live in the 20% least deprived areas of Scotland.
  • Across Scotland, as expected, a fifth of the population live in each deprivation quintile.

A more detailed briefing note on SIMD 2020 was prepared by the Strategy and Communications team in City of Edinburgh Council for their Elected Members.

The report highlights:

  • Edinburgh’s share of the most deprived areas in Scotland has decreased since the last SIMD in 2016. Of the 20% most deprived data zones in Scotland, 5.0% are in Edinburgh, compared to 5.9% in SIMD 2016.
  • In 2020, Edinburgh is the local authority with the seventh highest proportion of data zones in the 20% most deprived areas.
  • Whilst deprivation exists in Edinburgh, most of the City’s data zones rank amongst the least deprived areas in Scotland. 45.2% of Edinburgh’s data zones are in the 20% least deprived areas of Scotland. This is similar to the pattern observed for SIMD 2016 when 42% of Edinburgh’s data zones were in the 20% least deprived.

[11] Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation 2020, Scottish Government https://www.gov.scot/publications/scottish-index-multiple-deprivation-2020/  (28 January 2020)

The NRS Household estimates of households and dwellings 2019[12] publication details that there were estimated to be 238,269 households and 252,731 dwellings in Edinburgh, including 1,809 second homes. There were 8,462 vacant dwellings in Edinburgh, of which 5,608 are long term empty homes. A household means a group of people living together in a dwelling, whether they are alone, or living with others whether related or not. The average household size was 2.14. This average is based on removing people living in communal establishments and student halls of residence.

Of the 238,269 households, two fifths (40.2%; 95,824) were estimated to be single person households. It is estimated that 28,399 people aged over 65 are living in single person households. This represents approximately 36% of the over 65 population.

Projections for the number of households, as for population, are produced by NRS. The NRS Household projections (2018-based)[13] publication provides detail on a number of household types. These are summarised in the table below.

Table 1.18: Projections of household by household type, Edinburgh 2018-2030

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
1 person female 47,418 47,779 48,203 48,615 49,246 49,840 50,419 50,959 51,488 52,114 52,682 53,269 53,823
1 person male 47,065 48,045 49,150 50,213 50,683 51,169 51,673 52,150 52,642 53,135 53,570 53,989 54,384
1 adult, 1+ child(ren) 12,436 12,575 12,746 12,892 12,976 13,074 13,178 13,283 13,387 13,483 13,576 13,662 13,740
2 person all adult 73,257 74,129 75,068 75,999 76,896 77,596 78,216 78,745 79,171 79,526 79,944 80,407 80,860
2+ adults, 1+ child(ren) 37,129 37,374 37,724 38,061 38,503 38,916 39,349 39,780 40,208 40,601 40,967 41,305 41,601
3+ person all adults 18,467 18,366 18,281 18,174 18,238 18,245 18,269 18,305 18,359 18,425 18,505 18,623 18,749
All households 235,772 238,268 241,172 243,954 246,542 248,840 251,104 253,222 255,255 257,284 259,244 261,255 263,157

The graph below shows that the increase in single person households exceeds the growth in all households, both in Edinburgh and nationally.

Chart 1.4: Projected households Edinburgh and Scotland 2018-2030

In Edinburgh, in comparison with the 7.7% increase in population expected over the period 2018-2030, the anticipated increase in the overall number of households is expected to be 11.6%; with single person households expected to increase by 14.5%. This will result in the average household size decreasing from 2.20 to 2.12 over the period.

The projections as published by NRS do not include the modification to remove people living in communal establishments and student halls of residence as the assumptions underpinning these households may change as time progresses (due to changes in the way care is provided or changes in Higher Education). The projected average household size is therefore not comparable to the 2019 estimate of average household size of 2.14 that was noted earlier.

In Scotland there is projected to be 2.0% increase in the population coupled with a 5.5% increase in the number of households. The number of single person households is expected to increase by 9.3%. The average household size across Scotland, as calculated in the same way above, also decreases from 2.20 to 2.12 between 2018 and 2030.

Key points include:

  • The number of households in Edinburgh is expected to increase by 11.6% between 2018 and 2030.
  • Two fifths (40.2%) of households in Edinburgh are single person households compared with 36.0% nationally.

The proportion of single person households is expected to increase slightly to 41.1% by 2030 in Edinburgh and 37.3% nationally.

[12] Estimates of Households and Dwellings in Scotland, 2019, National Records of Scotland https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/households/household-estimates/2019  (18 June 2020)  

[13] Household Projections for Scotland, 2018-based, National Records of Scotland https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/households/household-projections/2018-based-household-projections  (29 September 2020)